The Trillion-Dollar Question: What Would It Take For Elon Musk To Become A Trillionaire?

When Microsoft first went public, Bill owned 45% of the company's shares. Over the next few decades, he sold so many shares as a part of a wealth diversification plan that today he only owns around 1.3% of the company. Let's say Bill maintained 30% of Microsoft. In early 2024, when Microsoft's market cap topped $3 trillion for the first time, Bill Gates would have become the world's first trillionaire.

On Tuesday, December 10, 2024, Elon Musk's net worth hit $400 billion for the first time. He is the first human ever to have a net worth of $400 billion. The very next day, his net worth rose to $450 billion. A fw days later, his net worth briefly touched $485 billion, which stands today as his all-time high mark.

The growth of Elon's fortune is absolutely stunning. Just five years ago, you could have bought all of Tesla for around $50 billion. Today, Tesla's market cap is $1.4 trillion. On October 1, 2025, Forbes (in our opinion) falsely proclaimed Elon to be the first person in history to have a net worth of $500 billion. Forbes's pageview-chasing over-eagerness aside, Elon certainly does seem to be on pace to hit half-trillionaire status at some point. Though the last time we made that prediction, Elon's net worth proceeded to shed around $200 billion over the ensuing months. Let's concede the idea that Elon will become the first half-trillionaire. Here's the literal trillion-dollar question:

What would it take for Elon Musk to become a trillionaire?

Elon Musk's net worth is currently $470 billion. Elon's fortune is built on several assets:

1. His stake in the privately held SpaceX. He owns 43% of SpaceX. SpaceX's latest funding round valued the company at $400 billion. Therefore, Elon's 43% stake is worth $160 billion.
2. His stake in the publicly traded Tesla. He directly owns 412 million shares of Tesla, roughly 13% of the company, and has another 304 million exercisable options. He's also pledged A TON of his shares as collateral on loans. As I type this article, Tesla has a market cap of $1.44 trillion. Therefore, Elon's shares (directly held + options –  debt) are worth $265 billion.
3. His stake in the privately held xAI holdings. He owns 33% of xAI, which was most recently valued at $100 billion. Therefore, his stake is worth around $35 billion.
4. Several smaller ventures like Neuralink and The Boring Company. These add another roughly $10 billion.

 $160 + $265 + 35 + 10 = $470 billion

(Photo by Maja Hitij/Getty Images)

What Would It Take To Hit $1 Trillion?

We ran the numbers. I'll spare you the details. Here are the circumstances that represent the most likely path for Elon Musk to become a trillionaire:

#1: Tesla's market cap grows to $3.5 trillion. That's a 150% increase over today's $1.4 trillion. At that level, Elon's $21% stake would be worth $735 billion.

#2: SpaceX's value (either private or as a public company) grows to $600 billion. That's a 50% increase over today's $400 million. Assuming he maintains a 40% stake at that level, his shares would be worth $240 billion.

Let's say all his other assets and debt levels stay exactly where they are right now. If Tesla and SpaceX grow to those market caps, those two investments combined would be worth $975 billion. Rounding out for some debt and other assets, notably xAI, and I think it's safe to say Elon would be a trillionaire at these levels.

But There's An $8.5 Trillion Catch!

The math we just ran assumes Elon's Tesla stake stays fixed at 21%. But that's not what will happen if the company's market cap keeps growing.

In September, Tesla unveiled a new ambitious compensation plan for Elon that could ultimately award him an addtional 12% stake in Tesla – up to 35 million shares – based on a combination of market cap and performance milestones. The highest level market cap in the plan is $8.5 trillion, but he can also unlock additional shares along the way at lower-level milestones, starting at $2 trillion market cap. At the time this plan was announced, Tesla's market cap was $1.1 trillion. Today, it's already a bit over $1.4 trillion. Here's a chart summarizing the compensation plan and each milestone:

Three Paths To Trillionaire Status

Let's just jump to the conclusion. We ran the math under a bunch of market cap scenarios to determine Elon's most realistic paths to trillionaire status. We isolated these three paths as being the most realistic. Personally, I think Path #3 (highlighted in red) is the most realistic option:

1. If SpaceX's valuation stays at the current $400 billion, Elon will need Tesla to hit a market cap of $3.5 trillion to become a trillionaire.
2. If SpaceX's valuation goes to $600 billion, Elon will probably unluck trillionaire status with Tesla at $3 trillion.
3. If Elon can increase the overall value of his "other" assets from $60 billion to $100 billion, Elon can become a trillionaire with SpaceX flat at $400 billion and Tesla increasing to $2.5 trillion (basically Scenario C at the end of this article). 

If you're interested in more detailed math and information on each milestone, I've included both at the bottom of this article. For now, I want to leave you with the following caveat: The last time we made a bold prediction about Elon's net worth was in December 2024. At the time, we thought Elon was going to become the world's first half-trillionaire within 24 hours. Here's what happened to Tesla's stock price the literal day we published our prediction:

Tesla is volatile 🙂 And as a reminder, this is absolutely not investment advice, and I do own some shares of Tesla in a retirement account. Here's more detailed math if you're curious:

Milestone → Tranche → Ownership Impact

The 2025 CEO Performance Award is split into 12 tranches. Each time a market-cap milestone is matched with an operational milestone, Elon unlocks roughly ~1% of Tesla (≈ one tranche). Starting baseline used here: ~21% ownership.

What The New Plan Means For The Trillionaire Math

Assume a constant $40 billion for xAI, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. SpaceX stake assumed at 40%.

Scenario A — Tesla $2T, SpaceX $400B

• Tesla: ~22% of $2T ≈ $440B
• SpaceX: 40% of $400B = $160B
• Other (xAI/Neuralink/Boring): $40B
• Total: ~$640B

Verdict: Not close to $1T.

Scenario B — Tesla $3T, SpaceX $400B

• Tesla: unlocks $2.5T and $3T tranches → ~24% of $3T ≈ $720B
• SpaceX: 40% of $400B = $160B
• Other: $40B
• Total: ~$920B

Verdict: Close, but still shy of $1T.

Scenario C — Tesla $3T, SpaceX $500B

• Tesla: ~24% of $3T ≈ $720B
• SpaceX: 40% of $500B = $200B
• Other: $40B
• Total: ~$960B

Verdict: Even closer, still just under $1T.