No, Elon Musk Did Not Just Become The World's First Half-Trillionaire… But He Certainly Is Heading In That Direction

About an hour ago (I'm typing this at 3:25 PM PST on Wednesday, October 1st), Forbes published the following headline:

"Elon Musk Just Became The First Person Ever Worth $500 Billion"

Unfortunately, in my opinion, this headline is not accurate. When you actually run the numbers — Tesla's recent stock climb, SpaceX's valuation, and Musk's stake in his other companies — the math doesn't add up to $500 billion. Not yet. Frankly, it's my belief that Forbes is front-running a headline to get a ton of pageviews and backlinks. Because guess what? That's exactly what's happening:

The Real Math

Full disclosure: I own shares of Tesla in a retirement account. This article is not stock advice, and no sane person can predict what will actually happen to Tesla. Take me, for example. I got swept up in a serious case of FOMO in late 2024 and bought Tesla at $349 a share. I felt like a genius for a few weeks as the share price climbed to $400, then $450, and very briefly $480… then as he became the most hated person in America, the stock sank all the way back down as low as $220 in April 2025. Over the last few months, the stock has climbed right back up. It closed at $459 a share today. So I am once again feeling like a genius.

At the end of yesterday's market closing, CelebrityNetWorth estimated Elon Musk's net worth at $460 billion. Bloomberg pegged it at $456 billion.

On Wednesday, Tesla's stock increased 3.31%. A 3.31% gain in Tesla's market cap translates to roughly a $7 billion increase to his personal fortune. Maybe more like $10 billion, depending on how many options he holds and how many shares are currently being used as collateral on loans. Let's be generous and say his net worth today is $470 billion. As you can see, that's not $500 billion.

In late December, when Tesla very briefly hit an all-time high of $480, and we wrote an article titled "Elon Musk's Net Worth Hit $485 Billion Tuesday… Hypothetically Could Become The World's First Half-Trillionaire *Tomorrow*"… As it turned out, the next day, Tesla dropped to $440. Then $400. Then $370. So, based on the fact that Elon's net worth was $485 billion when Tesla was at $480, it seems improbable that today, with Tesla at $459, he would be worth $500 billion. Here's a more detailed breakdown…

Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

Where Forbes Finds the Extra $30–40 Billion

If Tesla's bump only explains a $7–10 billion increase, where does Forbes get the extra $30–40 billion needed to push Musk across the "half-trillionaire" line? The answer lies in how you value his private companies — and how aggressive you want to be with those valuations.

Tesla

Tesla closed today with a market cap of $1.53 trillion. Musk directly owns about 12.5% of the company, a stake worth roughly $190 billion. Musk COULD eventually own an additional 9% of Tesla, thanks to his famous 2018 compensation package. Unfortunately for him, a Delaware judge voided that package in January 2024, but Musk is appealing to the state supreme court. If reinstated, that package could eventually be worth over $130 billion. Elon also has at least half of his shares pledged as collateral for personal loans. These two factors add an extra $75 billion to his net worth.

SpaceX

SpaceX has been the crown jewel of Musk's private empire for years. In August 2025, a tender offer valued the company at around $400 billion, up from $350 billion late last year. Musk owns roughly 42%, which works out to $168 billion on paper. That's an enormous number, but it's also one that fluctuates depending on which private deal you cite.

xAI Holdings

This is where things get really fuzzy. In March 2025, Musk merged his AI startup xAI with X (formerly Twitter), creating a new entity called xAI Holdings. Forbes values the combined company at $113 billion, and says Musk owns a 53% stake with a paper value of around $60 billion. Other sources are less bullish: PitchBook pegged xAI at $75 billion earlier this year. Bloomberg claims Musk owns 33% of xAI holdings and that it was valued at $105 billion by Fidelity and Barron in 2025 filings. Using Bloomberg's info, Musk's stake is worth $35 billion (vs $60 billion used by Forbes). 

When you add up all the numbers in red above, you get: $190 + 75 + $168 + 35 = $468 billion.

I'm going to publish this article in a moment. It's 4 pm PST on the dot. Bloomberg has not updated its estimate for Elon yet. They still show data "as of September 30, 2025," aka yesterday. I'm going to go for a walk and take a shower. I bet by the time I get back, Bloomberg will have updated its numbers. Want to guess where they land? Over/under $470 billion? Whatever Bloomberg updates its number to, you can bet it won't be $500 billion.

***Update*** I went for a walk and took a shower. It's now 5:25 pm PST. I just refreshed Bloomberg's billionaire rankings and guess what… Elon Musk's net worth? $470 billion 🙂